STAR OF GIBRALTOR MAY UPSET IN ECLIPSE STAKES

Sunday, February 9, 2014


MUMBAI RACES

1. MALKIA was a surprise winner who has been very regular in tracks since. FIRST AND ONLY ONE won finishing on in style and has scope but goes with an ordinary rider who may not be able to get the best from the mount. UCHESHWARA is a maiden who has the best chance to win with this mature rider , handicap favors , has been given gates and looks fine. FLEETWOOD MAC was a flying finisher who will be fancied to do well with this rider.

UCHESHWARA-FLEETWOOD MAC-FIRST AND ONLY ONE.

2. DISCOURSE and ZURICH had run close to each other in last race and both have rider switches, the later had moved up near the finish. GRENADINE is from a good speedy sire and has been nicely tracked. Both the youngsters from ARABIAN GULF, the duffer type sire flopped miserably last time, ignore them.

ZURICH-DISCOURSE.

3. MONTREAL has won 4 races in a row and upto a mile, the step up in distance may not suit though he is at an attractive handicap. The one to trouble him is TRANCE who has only a maiden win but remember she ran 4th to AMELIA in Bangalore Fillies and is receiving lots of weight. HIDDEN GOODNESS is the aged one who can make these two race hard.

TRANCE-MONTREAL.

4. DRACO from the good sire has just one gate and one track, the dam was ordinary. LOCARNO was a speedy one who was not ridden out after leading in, has a mighty rider switch and should be the one to back.PEPPERCORN who ran forward is ordinary in breeding.SIMPLY DIVINE was a late finisher who looks much improved in tracks.

LOCARNO-SIMPLY DIVINE-DRACO.

5. JUST BY CHANCE is a demote who can do well here. BALINGA had run a very suggestive race and was given a weak ride next, may do well with the keen rookie now. FEAST OF LOVE may show improvement. ARGYLE PINK has the rider repeating, may go through at this distance. TUSCANIA was a good 2nd and has to be tried now.

ARGYLE PINK-TUSCANIA-BALINGA.

6. ORIENTAL ROCKY faught hard in last run and was a nice 2nd. TRISARA has been trained nicely but last failure was too bad and though bred to stay, has been running well in sprints earlier, may recover loses. QUEST FOR LOVE was a free forward runner who gets the allowance rider. Watch out for ORIENTAL DAWN who has been coming down in scales has handicap in favour. VICTORIA FALLS has an outside chance.

ORIENTAL DAWN-TRISARA-VICTORIA FALLS.

7. FLANKER has been tracking nicely and the full brother to SILKEN TOUCH is from the top sire. HUDSON HAWK was a good 2nd who has the rider switch and betting stable should fancy this one here. SPEAR OF TRIUM should improve on last run. ADAMS WING and OCEANA have been well prepared.

HUDSON HAWK-FLANKER-SPEAR OF TRIUM.

8. DANCING PHOENIX , AMELIA and ROSIE SUNSHINE are potential hopefuls for the sprinters cup and it will be a fighting race for supremacy here.The first named is bound to set up a good pace and the other two are good finishers. Of the oldies NEFYN can hope to place again. MARINSKY has a big step down to speed up in cracking pace company, has class to surprise the hopefuls.

AMELIA- ROSIE SUNSHINE- NEFYN.

9. TOROLOCO has been extensively tracked and has the best jockey for the job, but he still concedes lots of weight as terms of race are against him. MASTER SHIFU was a comfortable winner who has same level and ideal trip to travel. STAR OF GIBRALTOR is the one who looks at a tidy handicap and should run for money now.TO THE MANOR BORN has some class and low weights but a very weak trainer and ordinary rider.

STAR OF GIBRALTOR-MASTER SHIFU-TOROLOCO.

10. A bookmaker’s delight with many fancied runners and a large field. SHYGIRL who was shaping up for win was an unlucky looser. DARK KNIGHT is the dark un here, last run was good. ADVANCE TO CONATCT has been nicely tracked. WIKI WIKI who is catching the eye in works has a bad draw. ANGEL IN THE SKY was late last time , has put in some good tracks.ADIOS AMIGO is from the top stable who finished suggestively last time. THE MAGICIAN was a flying finisher who has a very average rider at low weights, may strike.

THE MAGICIAN-ANGEL IN THE SKY-ADIOS AMIGO.


DAYS BEST========LOCARNO


DOUBLE----------------- TRANCE X HUDSON HAWK



WIND STREAM SHOULD WIN STAYER TRIAL STAKES

Saturday, February 8, 2014


BANGALORE RACES

1. A tough beginner’s race with no horse having clear cut credentials or pointers. MANDARIN was given an easy run, has shown out with speedy track, should win if tried. TO THE FUTURE has run closest to the winner in the lot in the last run and has been pleasing in tracks. EVALINA is from a speed influencing sire but looks soft in works. OYE COME VA has worked well but needs to mature. WILD WILD ANGELS has worked well, and showed out well in gates.

MANDARIN -TO THE FUTURE-EVALINA.

2. TIGER EYES has potential, poor handling to loose earlier and a good forward run last time are indicators.WOOD STREAM a costly one for the owner has been wasted in the stables, has taken lot of time to come to hand, may run well.Watch out for RAAGA who has been given runs and is now working fine.TRADITION has been running restrained, may strike now with the rider whose head is on cloud nine after threw Derby win. SECRET TOUCH was well prepared to get on board last time can run into money again.

TRADITION-WOOD STREAM-RAAGA.

3. I SAY can run a good race on a level jump, is unreliable one. GREY CONNECTION from gambling connections has the good rider repeating over ideal trip. MR AMBASSADOR is a demotee who may upset. ROSHAN STAR with Roshan on top may do well over the mile, has been tuned up.ZERMATT has been sold, needs to be checked out by the new trainer, ignore for now.

GREY CONEECTION-I SAY-ROSHAN STAR.

4. BOLD MAJESTY has furnished well after two runs and the latest track shows the fine condition. EMPEROR CRUISE has been given a number of gates and is likely to be running genuine. RUSTIC SUNRISE ran a fair 3rd and is impressive in tracks. SPREADEAGLE needs this run, thye dam was ordinary. TURF TACTICS had veered out last time and is looking well in mornings.

BOLD MAJESTY-RUSTIC SUNRISE-EMPEROR CRUISE.
5. CAPITALIZE was a fighting winner who is on the up and is tracking very fluently. SALZBURG from a speedy sire has been notable in speedy works and should be fighting out in this company. AZETIC STAR is unreliable and appears ordinary. CASH MY WAY has tough handicap, is tracking fine. REFRESHED from a weak stables has a chance on comparison of old runs, looks fit in mornings.

CAPITALIZE-REFRESHED-SALZBURG.

6. APPLEJACK is a stout one and has been nicely prepared, has an outside chance due to the choice of weaker riders in the filed. The Indian Derby winner SUPER STORM in no more the same horse, the trainer would know the reasons for the dismal state of the animal, last run was too bad to bounce back from. WIND STREAM should be the obvious choice on handicap and solid preparation for the tainted trainer to score. DUMA has age and weights in favour, ran a fighting race in a weak Oaks field.

WIND STREAM-DUMA.

7. RICH CELEBRATION who is maintaining form does not look good on comparison. WILL STAR has incurred penalties for last two efforts, can place again. VALAHAK is an oldie with a good rider and is down in scales. CATAMARAN has come down in handicap and last finish was quite suggestive. Looks tough for CLEVER TRICK to progress.

CATAMARAN-WILL STAR-VALAHAK.

8. VOLT had won finishing on when not backed, went lame thereafter and is running after no open visit to the tracks?Now that the hapless original owner has sold off, DEEP BLUE SEA may be running better, has done well in most runs.STARSCREAM has been tracking well, is an in and out runner who may be tried. SPANISH FLY is a failed favourite who does not impress for win. KING OF HEROES may be tried for he has fine scope at low weights.

KING OF HEROES- STARSCREAM SPANISH FLY.

9. On first look ACE ANGEL STAR stands out here for the good preparation and virtually no opposition, he was out of the gates in a ziffy and impressed a lot in mocks but then things are always dicey with horses who are shy at the gates in actual race. The two to trouble him are ADRIPHOS who has new owner and trainer and may opt for a run and a work jockey ridden UNGOOGABLE who looks at a decent handicap. SEVEN OF HEARTS is another one who has moved to new stables with a trainer known to wait and bide his time. JAANVI should place by default.

ACE ANGEL STAR-UNGOOGABLE-JAANVI.

DAYS BEST=WIND STREAM

DOUBLE-------GREY CONNECTION X CAPITALIZE

VIEWS ON RATINGS SYSTEM BASED ON DERBY RESULTS

Wednesday, February 5, 2014


1. An interesting subject on rating system has been penned out by the esteemed blogger Mr shyam on his blog and since there is a break in racing I though I could give out my views on the subject too.

2. Ratings are numerical values given out by the handicapper based on the performance of the runners and these ratings are revised every time a horse races. Handicap and ratings are very closely related , the former is the actual level of each animal and this level is also based on the inherent racing strength of each horse and should be revised whenever the animal competes. Now is the question of what is the difference between rating and handicap . Ratings are figures allotted by the official handicapper who has to follow certain guidelines in reallocating rating, there is little flexibility when working out these figures. Handicap is the inherent level which often gets manipulated since not all racers are stretched to the desired limit every time they race. That is why one will often hear the trainers trying to run their horses for getting a suitable handicap or the term that a particular horse is a good handicapper which simply means that at his optimum level he is bound to give results. It could be illustrated by the example that two horses carrying equal weight race neck to neck at the finish in a particular race and after a few runs by both you find that they have a wider margin in weights allotted to them. One should note that THE DISTANCE RUN FOR WINNING A RACE IS NOT THE CRITERIA IN OUR RATINGS SYSTEM. This aspect often leads to wayward results when horses are made to run over varying distances.

3. The official handicappers use the system of penalties per performance. Winners of maidens races are often given a penalty of 12 points as is the case of races in handicap races. There may be a variation of 2 to 6 points in some winners due to the style of winning or the distance/ time achieved in respective wins. I personally don’t give much weightage to timings and that is a subject to be deliberated separately. A horse winning by a normal distance of upto 2 lengths is often penalised 6 Kgs or 12 points and a winner of 4 to 6 lengths may be penalised 14 to 16 points. A runaway winner by widening margin of more than 8 lengths or a distance may be penalised much more, that is why we sometimes see a horse being heavily penalised by 22 points or so in handicap races. The second horse gets a penalty of about 4 to 6 points and 3rd or 4th placed horse may also be penalised 2 to 4 points. The penalties are based on the perception of the handicapper to ensure that the horse does not have a handicap advantage next time it races, yet one finds a good type will keep on repeating with ease, one can not blame the handicapper for laxity, how can he gauge the true level of an animal and that is what makes for the uncertainties and excitement of this sport.

4. In case of terms races the penalties given often are unjust as has been discussed by Shyam in his blog. Take the peculiar cases of CIRCLE OF LIFE and AMAZING GRACE. Both are winners of one race each and yet the former was rated 88 and the later 47 prior to the Derby, the revised ratings show them at 100 and 47 respectively and that is exactly the flaw in handicappers views on the relative strength of the two animals. The distance margin between the two was under 2 lengths and the rating difference has been increased to 53 points, why because the handicapper’s book does not talk of penalties for horses running off board.If the two were to participate in a race again I am sure it will not be a one horse race in favour of CIRCLE OF LIFE though in all likelihood she will win easily. Now were the two to race in a handicap race CIRCLE OF LIFE will be probably have a fight on hand and may not win like STAR MAQUESS struggled all her career but AMAZING GRACE in class IV or even Class III will be at money back odds and most probably hack the field.
5. In terms races ratings and handicap does not matter and that is why some racers have a clear advantage over others as the handicap is more suitable to some of them and pits some with a bleak chance. Yet interestingly we also see the handicap sent for a toss by some of the runners. If these uncertainties were not to be and everything was to work out as per mathematics then the sport would have lost its charm and the term outsider would not have been coined. Outsiders will continue to strike either by design or by a sudden spring in the legs of a particular racer on a particular day and reasons could be discussed endlessly. I shall briefly discuss these a little later.

6. Coming back to the interesting result in Indian Derby which resulted in the start of this discussion. The schedule of lead up races for the Derby has its own interesting sequence. The key races which lead up are the Summer Derbys at all centres where the horses get to race over 2000 metres and later the Indian 1000 & 2000 Guineas over a mile , Ruia Cup and the Indian Oaks.The colts and geldings who obviously can not race in 1000 G and the Oaks actually have lesser chance of gaining experience vis a vis the fillies who can compete in all the races mentioned above. Obviously more weightage is given to the richer plums of the two Guineas which are raced over 2/3 rd distance than the Derby and this is one of the reasons for the varying results in the Indian Derby.MUIROI raced at a rating of 120, jeremiah at 112 , alaindair at 109 and AMAZING GRACE at 47.ALAINDAIR has been penalised for the win and his rating revised to 115.Since AMAZING GRACE has not placed on the board the handicapper has to follow his book and leave him at the same level. The flaw in the system stands exposed. But again you can not bring him to the level of horses like JEREMIAH, SOUTHERN EMPEROR, AGOSTINI etc as were they to race over a mile or so he would not finish within a distance of any of these. The present position achieved is due to one of the uncertainties of the sport. In my personal handicap book I have penalised him 6kgs or 12 points from a level of 69 from the previous of 57 as I rate his run equal to a win in a handicap race.

7. MUIROI always looked better than ALAINDIAR but this credit was achieved due to his win over a mile in 1000 G and perhaps the horse found the mile and half beyond its compass. Same explanation may be applied to JEREMIAH. Details of their pedigrees have been discussed very nicely by Maj Nalgolkar in INDIARACE . ALAINDAIR was more of a mile and a half horse and his pedigree seemed to have stood the test. Luck of the race is another factor which need not be discussed here. What I am hinting at is that should the three of them run against each other over a mile, ALAINDAIR may not be able to beat the duo and the same may be the case over 2000 m, however the longer distances are bound to favour ALAINDAIR and it will be interesting to see him retaining this supremacy in The Invitation Cup and the Indian St Leger.

8. I have touched about the subject of uncertainties in one of the preceding paragraph. The major parameters of a thoroughbred are pedigree, confirmation, health and training. Pedigree is a vast subject but it would suffice to say that it determines the aspects of class, speed, stoutness and brilliance of the horse which get measured up by our ratings system. Speedy horses like WAY OUT or ROSIE SUNSHINE will always beat JERMIAH, MUIROI or ALAINDAIR over sprints, whereas have no chanced whatsoever over a normal stayer type horse over mile or more. A good handicapper has to weigh in this factor seriously into his scheme of things. Many of our highly thought of trainers can often be faulted for not knowing the correct distance for a particular horse and that adds to uncertainties. Another factor is the precociousness or late development of some pedigrees, I always maintained that some sires off springs mature late and that is the factor which may have contributed to surprise victories of JUVENTUS or HOTSTEPPER as the sire GLORY OF DANCER was never precocious with his crop. Underfoot conditions, change of venues ,heat and cold etc all contribute to waywardness of results.

9. Finally something about a thought which perhaps was bothering the owner of REYNOLDS when he was speaking on the national TV , it may be that he missed something by not entering the very nicely bred to stay in the Derby, he is late maturing one from the sire mentioned in previous paragraph, ran a terrific race over Derby distance carrying a back breaking weight of 62 Kgs in good timings. Friends watch out for him even in best of the company.

MUIROI OR JEREMIAH TO FIGHT FOR INDIAN DERBY

Sunday, February 2, 2014


INDIAN DERBY DAY RACES

1. HIDDEN ASSET is from a speedy sire, has started his career late and ran well enough with a work jockey, tracks are fine, should be running for money with this rookie. MAGIC VISION has been given two easy runs after a fair effort. SUN HOT has a rider switch and may run differently here. DOUBLE DIAMOND was a good 2nd to SPEED BABY, was a lead runner last time, has a good rider. TRAFFIC JAM lost on the post and that run puts him as a serious contender even here in own age types.

HIDDEN ASSET-TRAFFIC JAM-DOUBLE DIAMOND.

2. HIGH EXPECTATION ran green and still was not far behind GREAT EXPECTATIONS, is shining in tracks lately. LEGEND OF THE SEAS could not sprint well as a favourite, is being tested over a mile. SPEED KING was slow off and ran erratically, has been sharpened up. STRATEGIC MOVE who ran 4th in GSP Million has looked impressive in works and should be favoured to win .

STRATEGIC MOVE-HIGH EXPECTATION-SPEED KING.

3. HAWK OF THE WIND and VICTORIOUS MARCH have good speed and are in form with nothing suggestive to separate the two. WAY OUT has to be backed till beaten with the type of inertia she shows, will be favoured to win. GANGANAM STYLE is on the up and from a good sire. WINGS OF GLORY has come into form and goes at low weights. INVINCIBLE is another sapeedy one at low weights.

WAY OUT-WINGS OF GLORY-INVINCIBLE.

4. STORM TRACKER has been in irresistible form and has never been beaten over his pet distance, today he is vulnerable against SUPREME STAR who is one and a half kilo off as per race 180 in handicap but is receiving 3 Kgs and also the distance is a mile which will suit the later more. Then one never knows the type of preparation trainer does for the good type HACHIKO who was in top form around this time last year. CLINTON is also no push over and may rebound.

SUPREME STAR-STORM TRACKER.

5.HAUNTING MOMENTS was a noticeable front runner who could not stay in the OAKS, has a chance as the stable is firing with hooves on a run. SHEER CLASS is showing out in tracks, has been average so far, may improve. ELITE MODEL had flashed on to collar all in last run, will improve . PRESIDENTIAL was the one who was shaping up when nabbed, rider repeats.

ELITE MODEL-PRESIDENTIAL-SHEER CLASS.

6. The well bred REYNOLDS who blew away the filed with a dazzling finish in last run should be the obvious choice with the world acclaimed rider even when conceding weight. ZLATO had shown some interest in the straight last time, is bred from a weak sire. RICOCHET who won in well in lower class has been subjected to many tracks. DANSE DEBONAIR is an experienced stayer who was a good 3rd in last run. AVIATOR is still immature for a mile and a half.

REYNOLDS-ZLATO-DANSE DEBONAIR.

7. LAST CHANCE and FULL MOON are fringe horses who ran encouragingly last time but have tough field to tackle.QUASAR who has been given a run is the most improved in tracks and has a speedy pedigree.SCARLET EMPEROR was a late 2nd to the good type COUNTRY’S PRIDE and has a chance here. IRIDESCENCE has been kept easy in opener, may show true colours now. LADY BIRD has the rider to deliver, was 3rd to VISION OF ROMANCE who was a notable runner in graded race yesterday.

QUASAR-SCARLET EMPEROR-LADY BIRD.

8. Enough has been written by many on various aspects of the runners. MUIROI should win if he behaves on the gates and settles down to run. However since the GOD fearing owner is having a dream run the script can go wrong in the most important feature of his plans.JEREMIAH has done nothing wrong after he came to hand and can topple the hot favourite should things not work out for the favourite. The only other colt who has credentials is ALAINDAIR who was taken to the front too early last time. Fillies have little chance and it will be interesting too see if ISNT SHE SPECIAL can finish ahead of CIRCLE OF LIFE today.

MUIROI-JEREMIAH-ALAINDAIR.

9. BACKSTREET BAY has been worked well and is a gamble horse, lack of race run may cost the decent bred. DARK WILLIAM was a notable runner who may score with the rider repeating. STAR ZONE may place again. TOO THE MOON can hope to win as she had beaten SONG OF AFRICA who won again. MT TIANMEN can rebound, had run weakly when favoured.

DARK WILLIAM-BACK STREET BAY-TO THE MOON



DAYS BEST==WAY OUT


DOUBLE------STRATEGIC MOVE X SUPREME STAR

TOP COMMANDER FOR BREEDERS PRODUCE STAKES

Saturday, February 1, 2014


MUMBAI RACES

1. GIANT LUCK has been tracking well, has a fair chance. PAMUSHANA from a top class mare had started racing only after the post was sighted and he showed good acceleration in last 100 metres, is bound to improve now. TEMPEST was flat out in last run and the extended distance may not be in favour. SHAUGHNESSY is bred well and is bound to improve with a proper rider now. OSRIC has handicap in favour and has lowest weights, last run with top weight impressed me a lot, has the rider repeating for a trainer who is not getting winners.

OSRIC-PAMUSHANA-GIANT LUCK.

2. ZOOM ZOOM can not be suggested for a win as last win was a draining one. ACE ANGEL FIRE is looking very speedy in works and she can step up over the extended distance. ANALEAH needs to be ridden differently as she fizzles out in the heat of the race and has taken down much of wager money. SHEER ROMANCE is working well. ALECTO is a top bred who has come to hand late and he is likely to threaten the hopefuls.

ACE ANGEL FIRE-ANALEAH-ALECTO.

3. CACTUS CASH has always been racing against superior types and over longer trips. He was leading most times and has a good handicap chance here despite the top weight. STILLETO is more of a sprinter and needs a run. PATRIOTIC won easily and may step up. MATRIOSHKA ran above his level last time and should do well. The one who caught the eye with a scintillating finish was SAMBA WARRIOR and looks good in works, may be allowed to win if odds are decent.

SAMBA WARRIOR-CACTUS CASH-MATRIOSHKA.

4. A number of speedy contenders with no clear edge. WINDSOR QUEEN is winner of two and has been given runs. THREE ROSES was ridden off the pace and finished on under strong handling, rookie has a useful draw. WAVES OF MAGIC has a useful rider switch after a forward run. PEPE SENIOR has a negative rider after a fast finish. EL WONDER has form but a wide draw. WINDS OF CHANGE carried the jockey into place money, has scope. PLAN B has low weights and a good rider to speed away.

WAVES OF MAGIC-EL WONDER-PLAN B.

5. ALBUURZ has a good draw and if jumps out well can go away.SAN RAFAEL was a forward runner to be interested now.WIND CRAFT ran a suugestive race and gets an allowance rider. BLIND DATE has been prepared, has a tough handicap.NICANOR has a chance at low weights.

ALBUURZ-WIND CRAFT-BLIND DATE.

6. SPLENDID LIGHT is from a failure sire, horse was pulled in last run. MAQSAD is a trainer owned got abroad who has the top rider repeating. THE OTHER SONG is unreliable from the management’s stable. ZOLTAN who was an impressive runner has a handicap chance. PENNY LANE has scope to improve. ADAM’S PRINCE goes over ideal trip. TAJ E SHAHI may run well with the rider switch.

ZOLTAN-MAQSAD-SPLENDID LIGHT.

7. Aptly named GREAT EXPECTATIONS from an ordinary sire ran very well and has a top class international rider. ARTISTE was a forward runner, should run well. SHIVALIK BREEZE showed out in first run, will fight out now. SHIVALIK SKIES is very promisisng in tracks. ZUMI ZUMI is looking forward in works.

SHIVALIK BREEZE-SHIVALIK SKIES-GREAT EXPECTATIONS.

8. ANAHI lost to a speedy type who won again, has an allowance rider for benefit. SILVER STREAK goes overe wrong distance. DANCING PRANCES continues to win at this distance but runs into real competition and what is disturbing is the choice of a weaker rider. MONZA is moody , can surprise. RIO with a good rider has a chance to get the extra yards. AMELIA was shaping up well when she tripped, had lost narrowly to D PRANCES and has distinct weight advantage now.

AMELIA-DANCING PRANCES-ANAHI.

9. BE SAFE warmed up nicely to get the last win, looks a good type. DON CORLEONE is a well bred for speed and last win was authoritative. MAJESTIC OPINION has tracked fine and retains form. SHIOVANE is from a top sprinting sire and has maintained form. CELTIC PRINCE is from a precocious sire and ran well in opener. TOP COMMANDER has low weights and the top rider for the baron’s horse, is tracking very smoothly. KOALAA was a fighting looser who may run well again.

TOP COMMANDER-CELTIC PRINCE-BE SAFE.

10. ULTRA SONIC was shaping like a winner and lost narrowly. INTESAR won in fast company. MAUNA KEA may run well, no tracks are a norm with the trainer. FEODOR is from a good sire and is on the up.RELIC HUNTER goes at low weights, showed good speed last time.

ULTRA SONIC-RELIC HUNTER-MAUNAKEA

DAYS BEST=SAMBA WARRIOR

DOUBLE---ZOLTAN X TOP COMMANDER


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All the postings and comments are my personal Views.Owner of the blog cannot be held responsible for any consequences arising due to use of data from this blog for any wagering etc . The blog is basically for information & guidance purposes and not for basis of any venture of any kind. I have created this site for airing my views on the subject and not for any personal benefits.

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